So the sanctions nightmare isn't over And it could get much worse now Ukraine Is asking the United States to do the Unthinkable day one sanctions imposed on China and India so we have a top Ukrainian lawmaker calling for the U.S To punish the two countries for buying Russian oil and I think we are moving Into really dangerous territory here Just take a look at all the inflation Disaster and Chaos we have today after The sanctions were slapped onto Russia And now you want to sanction China and India two economic powerhouses with the Largest populations on planet Earth According to Ukraine China and India are Financing the Russian economy and Russian military machine and it goes on To that how sanctions should be Consistent this is a global conflict Between democracy and authoritarian Regimes yes China and India have been Buying Russian oil enjoying as much as 40 discount versus brand crude but oil Is an international commodity and Countries have to look out for their Best interests now India's foreign Minister has said this many times that The country will continue to buy Russian Energy because they have to prioritize Their energy needs and the same goes for China as well and if we were to look at The other side of the equation the United States is also benefiting from
The conflict by selling LNG to Europe at Insanely high prices and when you impose Sanctions there will be winners and Losers even if you hate the outcome now I get it what Ukraine wants to do is to Squeeze Russian revenues bone dry to Make Putin so broke that he can't find Anymore the Kiev School of Economics Somehow has crunched the numbers and They believe the price cap should be Lower to 30 dollars to push the Russian Economy over the edge but the problem With this is that the oil markets They're extremely complex if America Listens and sanctions China and India or Even just one of them this will spell The end of the US dollar the start of Another inflation crisis and a Global Financial meltdown that will hit the World and this could really spark of Financial your recession globally right Now what Ukraine wants is to impose Secondary sanctions on China and India Now there are two types of sanctions out There primary and secondary and I think We're all familiar with the sanctions That were slapped on Russia the freezing Of Central Bank assets food trade and Bargos and cutting away Russian entities From the Swift system now this is more Or less a primary sanction it is a set Of comprehensive economic restrictions Right basically your country is cut away From the entire U.S financial system or
At least part of it plus your assets Could get Frozen now secondary sanctions Are interesting it is designed to Prevent third parties from Trading with Countries already subject to sanctions Which in this obvious case is Russia so If secondary sanctions are slapped on China Chinese firms the import of buy Russian oil could be hit with a ton of Restrictions right and this could Include facing import or export bans Fines and being cut away from Participating in the U.S economy such as American Banks and the US is already Considering imposing sanctions on Chinese surveillance companies over Sales to Iran they have also sanctioned A Chinese firm that allegedly provided Satellite imagery of Ukraine to the Wagner group so secondary sanctions is a Reality essentially the U.S could do the Same in the oil markets right they could Impose sanctions on Chinese and Indian Oil companies that are buying Russian Oil and they will effectively Force the Companies to stop buying Russian oil and Gas or face American sanctions but That's a big problem by cutting off Russian oil to China and India through Secondary sanctions these could Compromise the energy security of both Countries and that's just the tip of the Iceberg if the U.S really slaps China India with sanctions they have
Effectively sanctioned the majority of The brics block right Russia China and India they all make up the majority of Commodities and economic power in the Group they are the Beating Heart of Bricks and I think you kind of get how Slippery this slope really is Sanctioning Russia was bad enough but Trying to sanction the worst Factory Which is China plus India which is the Fastest growing economy is really a Recipe for disaster even the IMF Highlights China and India as two Countries in the world that will grow Faster than any emerging or advanced Economies in 2023 and Beyond and we Quickly understand why this move will Destroy the dollar even if it does push Russia over the edge you will likely Drive the dollar to an early grave as Well but let's discuss the effect of Sanctions on China and India and really Really Russian revenues and Bleed the Kremlin dry and we have to Understand that even after the sanctions And price cap on Russian oil the current Account surplus of Russia is 227 billion Dollars in 2022 almost double that in 2021 and this tells us that Russia Exported more goods and services than Their Imports which obviously means Russian oil is still flowing strong and That their results are still increasing Despite the war spending and it's all
Thanks to China and India buying oil and Gas now the problem with sanctioning China and India is that you're opening Up Pandora's Box again you are Disrupting the Dynamics of the oil Market and remember that Russia is the Second largest oil producer and exporter In the world they represent 12.2 percent Of Global Production so if you cut away The supply to China and India you are Effectively depriving the world of oil Now this is going to spike the global Price of oil because now China and India Have to compete with the rest of the World for another energy source right Plus the Chinese won't be able to resell Russian energy to Europe even if they Wanted to so this move is going to Boomerang back in the West in the form Of higher energy inflation we're going To see prices Spike higher in the west Especially in Europe which is already Slated to perform even worse than the United States the UK will enter a Recession while Germany's on the edge of One with only a 0.1 percent GDP growth Expected in 2023 so if oil prices hit Higher this could push the Eurozone more Or less into recession now Putin has it Time and time again that he won't comply With a price cap so if sanctions hit China and India he'll probably reduce Russia's oil exports and offer any Remaining countries bigger discounts and
This could cause the global price of oil To rise to Russian revenues might not be Really that severely affected they could Actually still turn a profit in fact we Can see Russia has nearly 600 billion Dollars in reserves and according to British defense Intelligence on Twitter Russia declared their National defense Spending for 2023 is planted around 84 Billion dollars now that's a 40 increase From the 2021 budget but Russia still Has enormous reserves so even if China And India stops buying Russian oil Tomorrow Putin still has enough results To fight the war for a few more years However the world won't be standing Still during this period China and India Will start to hit back on the sanctions And find ways to still access Russian Oil now so let me take sanctions on China is one thing but always sanctions Is a whole different animal especially When the country is trying to reopen now What China and India will probably do is To directly detolorize in order to Access Russian oil now instead of using US dollars to conduct business you'll Simply conduct more bilateral trade Using their National currencies China And India could always create new Agencies to buy online gas from Russia Using the Yuan rupee or Ruble right now China's already buying Russian gas using The Yuan and rubles while there are
Reports of Indian refiners paying Traders in the UAE their harms for Russian oil they are trying to diversify Away from Dollar payments just in case Russian crude rises above the price cap Of 60 dollars plus we could see the Dollarization campaign throughout the Two countries where businesses will be Encouraged to explore more bilateral Trade and this is why the West is still Holding back from sanctioning China and India from buying Russian oil right the United States has not done it yet Because if Asia's biggest economy Stopped participating in the dollar System this could spell Doom however There's not going to be the end guys if You slap secondary sanctions on China And India they'll also be afraid of Binary sanctions they might start to Dump their dollar denominated assets Including treasuries to front-run any Potential threat to their reserves now China and India collectively own over One trillion dollars worth of U.S Treasuries that's almost 14 percent of The foreign treasury market now if they Were to start dumping U.S Bonds in Retaliation we are going to see Bond Values crash and yields Spike and guess Where that money is going to flow to They'll be reinvesting them back into The brics Nations and buying tons of Gold now India and China will change the
Digitalization game because their Economies are are just so huge the more Bilateral trait happens the less need There is four dollars and the less fear Of Western sanctions they will have now The US dollar can be a very powerful Weapon that's 100 true but it's also a Double X sword it gives the issue a Tremendous economic power and ability to Really arm twist the holders of dollars But if a coordinated dump happens the US Will also suffer painful consequences Especially when the Federal Reserve is Trying to hike rates without crashing The economy today now if the sanctions Really hit China and India I think this Will be the event that will Shock the World it'll really be Unthinkable Remember all the speculation about Saudi Arabia joining Bricks now this could Very well become a reality because if China and India are targeted there are Truly no countries that are off limits Right Saudi Arabia deal realized that no Country is safe no matter how big you Are and they will move to secure their Own interests they themselves must start To escape Metro dollar system and start Bilateral trade using Yuan rupees or Even go to diversify themselves we all Know what that means less oil price in U.S dollars and the Saudi oil Minister Has already expressed concern about Global sanctions and how they could
Impact the oil Market he said all those So-called sanctions embargoes and lack Of Investments they will convolute into One thing at one thing only a lack of Energy supplies of all kinds when they Are most needed and this is a very Bleak Future if sanctions continue and we need To prepare for the globalized world so Quite a few things will happen that will Drive prices and inflation up it just Won't be a scramble to the dollarized Supply chains also start to move towards The east now the world will start to Split into two blocks right Western and The Eastern Bloc and let's take the Microchip sanctions on China for example This is a perfect case of Supply chains Diverging and how globalization is Already breaking down we have the US Bank listing Chinese tech companies and Limiting China's access to cheap making Technology they are also thinking of Banning Huawei from U.S suppliers Including Intel and Qualcomm but this is Only going to push China into Tech Self-sufficiency sooner or later right They will eventually build up their trip Making technology especially when they Are ready to pour in a trillion yuan Into the semiconductor industry and once China closes the technology Gap I don't Think they'll be very keen to export Their trips to the West unless it comes With a hefty tariff one price for the
Eastern Bloc another prize for the Western block now sooner or later we Could see two marketplaces for the rest Of the world and this will mean supply Chain issues between goods moving from The East to the west and vice versa now The US is French showing her way from China but the reverse can also happen Guys but the most concerning issue is The oil Market cutting Russian oil away From India and China whale back fire yes It could hurt Russia but it might also Even Did OPEC plus to the point they Start working closer with Asia and they Begin more bilateral oil trades right And the recent phone call MBS and Putin Discussed how to maintain price Stability in the oil markets which means They will likely stick to the production Cards announced last year and if Anything happens to Russia's oil Production Saudi Arabia might even step In and buy up Russian oil to stockpile Cheap crude for future sales right they Have done it with Russian fuel oil in The past to meet their power demand and They can always import more crude oil as Well especially when Russia is selling At a good discount and the problem with Sanctioning China and India are the Unintended consequences that no one can Really predict right now if secondary Sanctions are slapped on either country They will diversify their income and
Their assets away from the West Initially China and India might comply With Western sanctions and stop buying Russian oil at a very start they will Keep things going while they diversify Away now both countries are still huge Trading partners with the United States And just in 2021 alone China exported Over 500 billion dollars to the US and India with 73 billion dollars worth of Trade right both finally drawing a Straight Surplus which means they are Making money they are earning money from Trade with America however they are Exchanging real Goods real tangible Stuff in exchange for paper dollars and If those paper dollars can be Frozen That's a really scary thought but There's always the off chance that China And India could just throw caution to The wind and embrace the sanctions right They could immediately rally the brics Nations together to move away from the Dollar and this could cause a serious Disruption in the oil markets supply Chain issues and most importantly stole The inflation fires away now I really Hope there will be no more sanctions Especially against China or India we are On the edge of recession and the world Continent deal any more surprises so let Me know what you're thinking the Comments below Will the west ever Sanction India and China what will be
The blowback if that happens let me know In the comments below stay safe be sure To smash the like button and subscribe As we navigate through these insane Times
