Yeah I thought what you were saying There was that silver was gonna make a Run and then everything went dark oh it Froze for like a minute Well let's start over [Music] So 2022 ended up being a pretty quiet Year for gold and silver we are in the Midst of a bit of a rally based on the FED finally conceding a little bit of That aggressive policy but we need to See more than that from metals to really Take off so in this one I'm going to be Talking with Lee organs from wealth Research group now he just has a lot More expertise than I do now we're going To be talking about a few things first We're going to talk about Jerome Powell's most recent comments and the Fed's current stance on inflation what That means for rates the US dollar and Gold and the spoiler here is that Metals Prices well he thinks they're going to Go higher but lior explains when and how Much he's saying 2023 events will be Good for medals but then he gives the Big catalyst and that's not a for sure Thing but he thinks it's going to happen That would be more than good for gold And silver and that's more about jobs And then one of the most interesting Takeaways here is really leora's Thoughts on Silver now I don't know Where I stand on that personally yet but
Lior thinks that silver has a really big Potential mid-2023 so make sure you hang Around for that I'm not going to give You any more intro we'll just Jump Right In So I think we start with Jerome Powell He's been talking about softer raid Hikes he's also talking about them maybe Sticking around longer I think last time We talked we were thinking maybe a 4.5 Percent range for federal funds rate now It's probably looking like five percent And higher so tell us what you think That's going to do to the economy to the Markets and the gold so uh yesterday Powell spoke at the Brookings Institute And it was uh first of all a nice speech A little longer than a statement so that Had some good jams in it but then the The Q a because the Um the person asking the questions is Not a journalist but he's like a more High level the questions were high level I think Powell actually respected him There's probably a relationship there Um and then the questions from the Audience were pretty sophisticated we Have some great uh things that we can Talk about so for one Um Powell talks about inflation in three Different uh so three different uh areas Of inflation that he wants to see get Healthier one has to do with Goods there
He says we have you know V uh like a a Check mark so that's been check marked The goods inflation what everything that Has to do with Freight uh Supply chains Etc that is getting sort out and looks Really good I've looked at a lot of data Congestion and ports I've done hours and Hours on this the the inflation when it Comes to Goods because you you know you Had a shock that the economy people were Staying at home they were only ordering Home uh Goods there was no service Economy so that was huge uh supply chain Problems Etc that has been uh taken care Of for the most part so don't worry About that and the problem the problem Is that that is what the FED thought was The whole deal they were like it's Supply chain supply chain it's Transitory so that's been solved and Here we are we'll still have incredible Inflation so No it wasn't Supply chains and it wasn't Transitory it became entrenched so where Is it entrenched one is in the service Economy for shelter so these would be Leases uh for rents and anything that Has to do with uh the housing market That is still uh very inflationary Um and it doesn't look like uh the Fed Um is able to to slow it down really Fast it it it may take another two three Years so I I think what Powell mentioned Is we certainly don't have runaway
Inflation or hyperinflation or anything Of that effect but there's still work to Be done on the services uh that have to Do with the housing market now He did say he doesn't want any human Cost any uh sacrifices any victims to be Had so they rather start to Um uh Ease on the amount of hikes they Do and perhaps even you know pause Towards June Um it would be the hint in his words Because they don't want to see a Full-blown recession just to stop Inflation That's they just don't don't think That's necessary uh and that the economy Can can evolve into this uh New Normal Without getting without uh the FED going Football voker so that was really Encouraging news second the third one is Uh inflation and services that are not Housing and that's where labor costs Um and what we call entry-level service Jobs there's a lot of inflation there Because there's just a shortage of Workers because of the pandemic a lot of Boomers have just retired and they're Not coming back to that Um to the employment cycle so and we Have very low uh immigration rates uh Very low compared to pre-pandemic levels So we have a lot of problems with too Many retirees compared to people that Want to work that is another area where
Inflation is going to stay hotter so the Bottom line is that what the FED is Telling us is hey inflation is an issue The world is learning to live in an Inflationary environment unacceptable to Us wink wink We're Not Gonna crash the Economy to get this solved so for the Next two three years here prepare for Four five six percent CPI numbers Because that's uh that's the way we Operate unless a lot more people come Back into the workforce and adjust this And and it's just not happening so I Think that's the big takeaway Um and the other major takeaway is that The FED is telling uh the market that it It can live with that it doesn't this is Not the same as in January of this year When it looked like inflation was Getting away from uh from everyone and Go into hyperinflation so I think that That that's the big takeaway Um and now we'll see how the market uh Reacts to the CPI numbers that will come In early uh December because they're Going to do a 50 basis point rate hike But more importantly is let's see CPI And let's continue to see the jobs Market that's the key that is the key to The economy right now because if you if If small and mid-sized businesses can't Find uh employees then we are headed to More of a wage spiral and the entry Level jobs and that's just not the the
Right way to grow this economy back uh In in the 2020s sure so what you said There was was something I guess I've Been paying attention to it sounds like In trying to avoid that full-blown Recession this pivot that everybody Keeps talking about gets pushed off and You just mentioned two to three years Maybe those rates get held at that five Or higher percent for a longer period of Time and that pivot really that changed From Hawk to dove that's really Important to the change of gold price Because what that does is pushes the dxy Down it it's it's basically headwinds on The dollar Tailwinds on gold do you see A big move for gold if this pivot I've Probably said it more than I should Already it's being overused but if that Gets pushed out do we really see that Big move for gold or do you think that That's a that's a uh not like a sharp up Turn but maybe something that's just Slower growth over time how do you see That affecting gold first of all we're Seeing a a breakout right now gold and Silver as with during this interview and That's because the market is priced 5.2 As the terminal rate for the fed and now It's that after uh the Brooklyn Institute uh q a session that looks to Be uh too much so the FED is probably Gonna gear towards between four point Uh 6 and 4.8 so that's adjusting uh and
That is uh why gold and silver are Rallying now the where they can really Rally In 2023 is uh if two things happen one If we see a lot of layoffs uh not in the Entry level uh uh jobs but in the high Level jobs where stock compensation Um was the key driver for uh attracting Talent so take you know take a simple uh Comparison meta or Facebook pays a Software engineer around 150k plus Around eight uh 100 000 in stock Conversation every year at T pays around 160 base but there's no stock Compensation so you can see how Silicon Valley was able to to attract a lot of Talent but when the stock is down 60 or 70 percent it cannot dilute uh and just Buy back more shares Um when you have a following Profitability and falling share prices So we are going to see a lot of layoffs In the big Tech and in the companies That uh uh that use the bull market to Attract Talent with stock compensation To the highest level talent and I think That that is why the market is pricing And is adjusting to a recession that Doesn't include An insane amount of layoffs because the Entry level worker is not going to get Laid off it took too long to attract These people back to work and the small Mid-sized businesses they rather
Negotiate uh hours and everything else Not layoff High level I think big Tech has over Hired and they are going to start laying Off so that's why I I think that the FED Is actually going to uh stop raising Interest rates towards June and keep Them there that's when I expect a lot of Risk on Behavior to come back into the Market and that risk on behavior is what You're talking about that is where the Top is formed on the dxy you don't need The FED to start cutting uh a cut would Be almost a bad surprise you need them To say we're done we're comfortable That's it You know we are in recovery mode the Economy looks to be uh in recovering Let's uh return to growth and that risk On environment that I think will come Towards the June 15 meaning 0.3 is where The dollar in my opinion creates that Top and that's when uh gold can start to Really rally uh and I think it you know It there's there's a chance that gold Does hit over 2 000 Um uh 100 in other words a new all-time High in 2023 I can see that happening For sure Especially when you consider that with Bonds this cheap and with stocks not That cheap The need to hedge in our world they need To add gold to one's portfolio as an
Institution is much greater than in the Disinflation uh decade of 2011 till 20 Uh until 2020 and I think that that is The key driver that will lead uh to All-time highs for gold next year so It's not two three years away uh to me At all Inflation is going to stay high but Because the uh the two other important Or the three other important asset Classes are in kind of a nowhere Nowhere's land they're not cheap and They're not expensive Bond stocks and Real estate the the need to hedge all These big three was go gold is much Greater than at any other time in the Past 11 to 12 years so I really like That and actually if you if you really Ask me I think that silver has a much Bigger chance of doing some incredible Moves after the the uh the likely June Pause uh than gold does so Silva can Really uh explode up and you're saying That's because silver is more correlated To the dxy more inversely correlated to The dxy correct it's if if you uh check Out I don't know if you've um seen our Report at wealthresearchgroup.com Forward slash out and forward slash fake Those two reports four slash fake is About uh the dollar being a fake Haven In 2022 and why we'll stop being a fake Haven in 2023 uh and what I mean by that People will start Stop Parking money in
The dollar not just because of the risk On environment but because of China and Europe and and a lot of technical Reasons that made the dollar the go-to Asset in 2022 and then uh the slash out Is about a fake out in terms of uh CPI Numbers we don't think that the CPI is Diving down towards the tubes we think It will take a lot of time to solve this Uh wage problem for inflation that That's why we see it at four or five or Six percent for two three four more Years and that is a big big number uh in The U.S economy if you lose 15 or 16 in Real terms on your purchasing power uh I Mean institutions do not own uh the Dollar they're not over uh weighted in Cash in that kind of scenario they would Rather have some gold exposure and That's really important sure let me ask You one more question lately with Basically anytime Jerome Powell comes Out and speaks we see the market rally And Gold Spike at the same time we're Seeing that right now and a lot of that Is based on these software rate hikes or News rumors of these software rate hikes I wonder do you see that stopping then In 2023 like you're talking about it Being more about the jobs market and Layoffs do we see a case where gold Spikes while the market does not yeah There will be a decoupling right now It's the dollar
Or all the other asset classes so if if Jerome Powell speaks and talks about hey There's a chance here of a soft Landing Hey we don't have to go into a recession All of that is cell dollar buy assets so That's why you see gold moving with uh With the NASDAQ and such now in in 2023 You get to a situation where Okay so I understand mild recession Uh High inflation and no growth so we're In a stick flation so in in a snake Flation environment there is uh not a Lot of reason to to hug an index you Would not hug the NASDAQ in this Deflationary environment or the S P 500 Or the doubt you would uh look for ways To hedge uh anything that you're doing And that includes a lot of uh gold Compared to a normal period where uh Hedging would not be as important in 2022 people don't even hedge they either Short or are in cash but that's because They were afraid of this hard landing And severe recession if that Um likelihood is getting diminished and You know we're starting to get back into Some sort of a uh just a zero growth Area then Um I see that decoupling Um and I think that the NASDAQ can stay Flat here Um for another year or so because There's so much more that needs to Happen uh for uh the large uh large cap
Tech stocks Um before they they clean out uh the the Access Um employees I mean just think of Google Google doubled their employee count Between 2020 and 22 and two everyone was Thinking that there's a like a paradigm Shift work was changing Entirely you know all the shopping from Home and at Google you know they're an Advertising company so yeah if you know What it what this reminds me it reminds Me of the World Cup in Qatar a country That had one Stadium One stadium and a few hotels and then They win the bid for the World Cup so They they have to build everything Hotel rooms and and stadiums and Everything and then the World Cup leaves And what do they do with all that and That's how the big Tech had to uh deal With the pandemic everyone was home Google needed all so many more employees Amazon needed them everyone needed them But now I mean you don't need them I Think that that is something that will Take time to sort out Um and as this happens uh the NASDAQ Just doesn't have uh what it needs to Explode and in the meantime Uh Europe looks a little better Um especially it will look a lot better After winter uh and China looks to have Looks to be peaking in terms of their
Playing Uh covet over there so Um that's important because If they're done uh playing around that And are going to reopen uh that Obviously is really important for the Dollar yeah the dollar trade peaking uh Because if if the world's second largest Gummy is is working again uh that helps Europe that helps everyone and you don't You don't need to be in cash you don't Need to be as afraid as you are right Now and Wall Street is definitely afraid The the sentiment is worse than in 2008. Okay let's try to give like the big Picture overview here to wrap this whole Thing up I really think that uh between December so where we are right now in June This will be where the rubber meets the Road you will see exactly what type of Recession we're getting into is this wow There's bankruptcies everywhere no Funding for for uh for startups like Crazy type of 2008 mentality or is this Okay Some people are getting laid off some Departments are closing uh you know some Real estate is distressed but overall Soft Landing yeah there it is I was Counting down for for you to use soft Landing I mean everyone uses it in a Hard Landing you would have double-digit Recession I'm sorry double digit
Unemployment and you will have Problems that hit uh Main Street and Make this a political event right now It's not a political event right now It's a reset evaluations so politicians Are not getting involved because Billionaires and millionaires are are Losing two years worth of equity Appreciation but if the the average Person is calling his congressman and Telling hey there's no jobs I've tried Everywhere and then you have a real hard Landing recession and my opinion it's Not going to happen Um but Uh we shall see in the next six months We will know everything yeah and it does Feel like that's kind of the fed's Approach to no sudden movement So that soft Landing does make sense That's kind of why I was waiting for That it feels like that's what really What their overall goal is just kind of Bring it down softly absolutely all Right leor I feel like that's a good Wrap so thanks again for spending the Time I appreciate it I'll get those Reports linked as you mention them and Then I'll I'll make sure that your Website is linked at the end [Music] Thank you
