Putin Is Pushing Germany Into A Recession – But Guess Who Benefits?

So things are getting real bad in Europe And Germany is heading to a recession And there's no Escape now if Germany is A Powerhouse of Europe is Contracting Then Europe's economy is going to take a Nose dive very soon remember guys winter Isn't even here yet we have Germany's Economy Minister blaming Putin for Pushing the economy towards a recession And he has very bad news for the country He is warning of a recession that will Start from Q3 this year and continue Well into 2023. we can see a forecast Showing that in 2023 Germany will have An inflation rate of 7 and GDP will Shrink by 0.4 percent and this is a Recipe for stagflation now the Eurozone Depends a lot on Germany so if German Industries collapse you'll be a domino Effect that will shake the foundations Of the EU Germany accounts for over 20 Percent of the eu's GDP now this is a Huge amount of production and when this Falls the economic slowdown was spread Across Europe and all this has to rule Of energy Germany needs more energy Specifically cheap energy and I wanted To take a look at some important numbers When it comes to the German industry and You'll quickly see how screwed Germany Really is in a month ahead now firstly Manufacturing and Industry dominates Germany's GDP we can see it contributes More than 18 of the country's value at

One of the highest in the Euro Zone that Is an enormous chunk that employs over 5 Million people and just imagine the Number of jobs that are on the line now Secondly there are four sectors that Dominate German industry we are talking About the automotive chemical electrical And mechanical Industries and what do All these have in common they are highly Dependent on energy they need cheap Energy to run and thirdly Germany has Always been a net exporter in global Trade which is a good thing they are Producing more that they consume but Things are rapidly changing guys Germany's Trade Surplus is disappearing Ring and for the first time in decades They actually posted a trade deficit Back in May Germany has actually sold Less stuff to the world compared to what They are buying we can also see Germany's balance of trade cratering to Hell and that means they are starting to Import more stuff and Export less stuff And very soon they might become like the United States and start building up a Huge trade deficit and this is a Dangerous turning point for Germany Because they are getting squeezed by High energy prices not only are their Import Bills going up but their Factories are also getting crushed and Unemployment is going to rise sooner or Later so the moment Putin turn off the

Gas tabs and not stream exploded Germany's economic fate was sealed I Think we can remember back in 2018 when Trump warned Merkel about spending too Much on Russian energy well they laughed At him but guess what Trump was right And now winter is coming for Germany but Are they really prepared to weather the Snowstorm remember there's going to be No gas from Russia coming Germany made It clear when Putin offered to pump gas To not stream to they refused and According to a report Germany has Reached 95 percent of their gas storage Target ahead of schedule now that is Good news however it will only last for Two whole months so if winter is brutal And drugs on longer Germany's economy Could slam even further and if we take a Look at Bloomberg's energy crisis index We can see that even though Germany's Gas storage is at 96 its power load Which is how much energy it uses is very High yes one of the highest power loads In all of Europe and a big portion flows Into German manufacturing so Germany Might have huge stockpiles but their Consumption is still crazy high and Whether they will get through one piece Is a serious coin flip it's a big Question and it's all dependent on Modern nature if Winter's Mao Germany Will get through in one piece but if Winter is Extreme then German Industries

Might might get crushed and we already Seen German manufacturers closing shops Right including the car industry we have Burgers a historic 156 year old German Car supplier filing for insolvency Because they just can't go on there's Over 6 000 jobs on the line here their Energy costs and raw materials are going Up in price and it's no longer Profitable to stay in business what we Are witnessing is the decimation of German industry because even if they Survive winter they are manufacturing Will be crushed for years so let's recap What has in store for Germany Energy Prices are still high they might not Have enough gas for winter and now rate Hikes from the ECB are coming inflation In Germany is a serious problem it is Almost 11 in September and this is a Real cost of living crisis but that is Only a partial picture if we dig into The numbers it is a horror story when we Compare it to the price levels of 2015. We can see the overall CPI is 21 percent Higher than 2015 food is 35 percent Higher than Energy prices are 57 percent Steeper things are really looking bad Guys remember a few months ago when we Say Germans are cutting down trees for Firewood well we aren't kidding about it The demand for firewood in Germany is Skyrocketing prices are flying up guys Firewood prices are almost double that

In 2015. people are aggressively Stacking firewood we are going back into The Middle Ages back into medieval Europe and when the ECB starts to hike Rates there will the economy Even further I think the real victim Here is going to be German Industries The real crisis isn't about Germans Freezing but the other decimation of Their manufacturing base and we have Headline after headline about Germany's Manufacturing shrinking and the data is Truly horrible we can see Germany's Manufacturing PMI index Crashing Down to Earth now the Baseline here is 50. Anything below it signifies attraction And we are under 48 today and hitting Dangerously down to the 2020 lockdown Levels so it's domain Gloom in Europe But there will be two big winners from This energy crisis as Germany's Manufacturing slides down the United States and China will be benefiting from This and we know the main driver of Manufacturing is cheap energy so we just Need to follow the energy to see who Will benefit the most now let's talk About China First China is going to Benefit from this situation and their Manufacturing base is going to grow Because they have access to cheap energy So let's recall what happened to russian Energy the north stream pipelines have Been blown up gas price caps are coming

Soon and Putin definitely won't play Ball and now there have been reports of Attempted attacks on the duckstream Pipeline the link between Russia and Turkey Russia's options to sell energy Are getting limited and the majority of It is going into China and when you are The biggest buyer you can get oil and Gas at a discount the Chinese now have The most critical manufacturing input Which is energy at a discount without Any disruption in Supply and this means They can manufacture stuff at a cheaper Price when costs are going up across the World especially in Europe and this is An incredible advantage that we can't Ignore when the lockdowns in China end And Manufacturing comes back online they Will have access to a huge amount of Cheap and uninterrupted energy from Russia so is this energy Alliance that's Keeping Russia afloat and allowing China To stay on top of manufacturing once This recession ends and when it comes to Their policies unlike the West China has Their head screwed on right during his Speech in the 20th party Congress President XI made it clear that China is Going to use both fossil fuels and Renewables at the same time they are Going to continue burning coal oil and Gas because it benefits their economy And they have seen what is happening in The west is a disaster in Europe because

They wear green too prematurely right Shutting down their nuclear plants Refusing to build LNG terminals to bring In more gas that wasn't a smart idea When you're highly dependent on Russian Gas so Europe's energy loss is going to Be China's gain so how does this benefit America as well how do they gain from This energy crisis and it's very simple The power of the US dollar and Europe's Desperation for gas and when it comes to Selling gas Traders and energy companies Don't really care where they ship it out To all they care is about making huge Profits and this is benefiting the United States we have the US exporting Huge amounts of LNG to Europe at record Prices in fact through June this year The United States exported 68 of their LNG all the way to Europe they are Making huge profits because the price Difference is just so huge the Arbitrage Is tremendous we can see the August gas Prices for the US are around eight Dollars was over 70 dollars in Europe so The there's a huge margin even after you Factor in the LNG process and the Shipping cost anyone can make money with Such a huge margin and Winter's fast Approaching Europe this means a whole Bunch of customers desperate for American Energy because they have Already boycotted Russian oil and gas so The U.S is going to continue making tons

Of money over the next three to six Months at the very least now the second Tool the U.S has is the power of the Dollar so here's the Inconvenient Truth We probably haven't seen the end of the Rising dollar just yet yes the world's Dead Dollar Rising central banks are Dumping dollars to defend their Currencies but other countries Especially Europe are collapsing faster So when winter comes Europe's economy is Going to be squeezed remember the EU has To keep hiking rates so their growth is Going to slow but at the same time they Are going to have to subsidize energy Costs and that means throwing more money At a problem the euro is going to get Devalued even further when investors see This happening they are going to swim to The ship that's sinking the lease which Is the US dollar this is going to make Imports cheaper to America especially Energy Imports and that's why this Energy crisis in Europe is gonna benefit The US countries that have access to Cheap energy have the potential to take Over the loss of manufacturing in Germany and the EU and I have a Prediction guys I believe once this Recession and energy crisis are over There will be two manufacturing Huts in The world China and the United States This will be the two big superpowers Left financially strong enough to

Dominate the industry Europe will Continue to suffer for many years to Come and Russia's economy is also a mess With high inflation and resources drain Away to fight the war China and America Will likely been the main actors in Tomorrow's story and between the two China has the greater potential to pull Ahead they are willing to play the long Game America still has to subsidize Europe going forward and China can keep Buying cheap energy from Putin because The West has alienated Russian energy Away there's going to be a big reshuffle In the world order very soon and we need To watch what happens to Europe when Winter comes so let me know what you Think how bad is the situation in Europe And do you think China or America will Be the next manufacturing superpower let Me know in the comments below stay safe Be sure to smash the like button and Subscribe as we navigate through these Crazy times