IS SALES FORCE DEAD – Market Mondays w/ Ian Dunlap

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[Music] Let's go over Salesforce yes Sales force has had his worst two days For a long time uh April 2020. it was Down ten dollars today it's Um which is not normal for a stalker That's us yeah eight percent Friday Currently at its 52-week low yeah 132 dollars Um is 52-week high is a 270 so that's more than 50 percent off For my backhanded math that looks like Around 60 off of it's all it's 52 week High yeah 52-week high is Salesforce dead Or is this a situation of investing Low Uh well for those who are loyal Market Monday's followers you all know that Salesforce was once a part of the Portfolio what is Salesforce it is the Number one CRM so customer relations Management company in the world A couple of things have happened a Couple of things have happened when they Were at a high in nov I think maybe December of 2020 they were at 310 Dollars They made some Acquisitions one of the Key ones obviously being slack which was 27 billion a couple of things have Happened when and when you do Acquisitions you gotta you you gotta be

Ready for those type of these type of Things Um When they acquired slack the number one Goal was to compete in that space or Knock out the competition which was Microsoft teams Microsoft teams has not fallen off it Has actually only gotten stronger that Has had not helped the the acquisition Of of slack uh but a couple things that People may not have been aware of okay So the last two weeks they've had some Key Executives leave Right step down or or announce that they Are leaving Here is what makes it super interesting So they acquired slack for 27 billion Dollars right they acquired uh Tay blue which was another computer Software company for 15 billion dollars And a mulesoft which is another smaller Company they acquired for six billion Dollars so since 2018 they've spent 50 Billion dollars in Acquisitions 50 Billion over the past three weeks three Executives stepped down let me tell you Where they are from okay Salesforce CEO Brett Taylor stepped down Stuart Butterfield he is actually the President or was the president of slack He was the CEO of Slack There was another CEO who stepped down And that was the CEO of Tableau so the

Three CEOs of two CEOs of the companies That you actually acquired have now Stepped down and the person who actually Brokered the deal Brett Taylor who was The co-ceo of Salesforce has also Stepped down that tells me or shows us a Sign that this acquisition Probably wasn't the best acquisition for The company at the time yep on top of Obviously what Microsoft teams has done And how stronger Microsoft has become in That CRM space It's it's a lot it's a whirlwind of Things that are transpiring for Salesforce at the same time over time But at the same time it feels like right Now so they still have a strong CEO I Believe so Are they in a world of trouble right now They're in some trouble but are they Going to be are they a strong company Yes is it the depth of them and I'm Going to say no Um It goes back to the one of the points That I always make when we are comparing A company head up Is their management better so if you Have the three people that leave your Company this is like Russell leore and Kevin Lyles back in the day leaving Def Jam these are not small Instances and oh and I've told you guys What is the number that we have to a

CEOs that we need to see step down Before we are in trouble and we head Into a recession this is three out of One company Yeah go number two going back to that Risky reward ratio so whenever I'm Looking at a company and they're making All these wild Acquisitions and they Were needed What is a return that you're expecting To get On these Acquisitions no one said Anything that's why I go back to that Risk to reward if you rare money Master The game Kyle bask you won a minimum Risk one to make five but once you Factor in time inflation emotional Discipline or lack thereof you really Need 11x to taper down in worst case Scenario to have 5x return on every Dollar that you deploy Number three I read a stat that said Based on the Acquisitions that they made Recently and then price cutting That the average time to return Money for clients they've acquired over The last year and a half is 10 years I'm no math major but I don't know if You can run negative acquiring a Customer to Hope in year 11 That you make a profit off of them Huge mistake I do like Mark benioff he's One of my favorite CEOs for those you Know you know he's one of Tony Robbins

Star students Um and worst case scenario going back to Worst case scenario planning The price that I have That Salesforce could drop to is 60.41 My question every time I deploy a dollar Is if my life and my son's life was on The line what I bought at this price I wouldn't buy Salesforce at 133.93 I Wouldn't touch it it's down and if we Look going back to end of year it had a High of 311.75 So historically for those for those of You that do Your homework even if you just do a Quick Fibonacci retracement We've already bled halfway through Um Worst case scenario we can push down Into the 40s Trading and investing has considerable Risk And going back to that top two I know You're tired of me screaming and ad Nauseam but sometimes there are Principles that last a lifetime that Work and that's more valuable than like New sexy Sensational information I like CRM but I wouldn't buy it at this time I Wouldn't touch it yeah I think they are Now if not tired or very close to being The worst performer on the Dow Jones for The year down 47 percent Yeah

They've been Intel are really close To being the worst problems on the down And Shelley just put it 50 CEOs have Stepped down Since last year you think they're doing That because They just want to play 2K all day We and I remember even when I said the Housing market was going to come down Everyone's like Ian doesn't know there's Nothing I'm like bro I am risking my entire career Given information in real time the People are confusing for hot takes Yeah you gonna keep seeing me at that Exchange boy it's for a reason it ain't Cause I'm cute I'm a little cute though You know what I'm saying but it's Because of these things please be Careful please be careful okay a couple Other things like the integration to Slack has been slower people were Obviously at home right so communicating Through Uh a CRM made a lot of sense but as People go back to work And as the integration process is still Happening Um the option Microsoft teams looks like A better option right now will it be the Long term We'll see Um but they they gotta they got a battle And we have an honor sidebar

Yeah And I'm not drinking Smoothie King is Alkaline water [ __ ] spits Um and it's ties to the FTX thing that I Brought up earlier but even with slack Slack was a mediocre product that got Exceptional Venture and Angel backing Would you have paid For slack what they pay for it Some of this is common sense I don't Know if slack was worth 700 million to Be honest Discord like if we just argue Fanaticism and which is a key Fundamental metric please write that Down the fanaticism of The brand or company Discord is eating Slack's lunch Not better but the user base is more Frequent I haven't heard anyone in two Years say that they love Slack While you're being and even though teams Is not the best the ecosystem and Systems that Microsoft has is arguably Second To None I don't know if you did Your homework when I said to take about Microsoft going into Um cyber security go look a couple years Ago what companies they acquired in the Cyber security space And then two years I probably launched They have so many deals that when you Begin to face

I want you to look at Apple and Microsoft as a mafia In the 1960s That is an opponent you do not want to Have because they can either replicate Your software Um duplicated at scale Or beat you behind the scenes with Government Contracting and B2B And this is the reason why I say even When there's all this fervor in the Market I've always said the inverted Yield curve and quantitative easing were The two most important indicators and When a fan stops printing money we're Going to see who is really good I'm really worried that in a couple Years some of our biggest tech companies Are going to go down because they didn't Have basic math skills to understand What the correct risk to return was and They wouldn't stop overspending I know We get a lot of criticism for praising Rappers but I will tell you the way Um Salesforce is spending you would have Think it was a little baby Yo Gotti or somebody because if you put Up 52 billion dollars when are you Expecting to get a return on that They would have been better off just Sitting on cash and that's why I say People like buffing when people are Saying in the crypto space you lost his Touch he's too old I'm like it's really

Hard to lose with sitting on a few Billion dollars in your treasure chest Waiting for everyone to go bankrupt and Then buying them out but What do I know and if I've made you Money please put yes and chat I love Y'all [Music]

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