Okay so we have some fun price movement On the metals to take a look at so we're Going to do that we're gonna actually Look at it I mean Like actually look at it So people tend to be very good at Predicting the recent past Terrible at predicting the future so We're gonna look at what's really Happening whether everything changed for Gold and silver or whether it was more a Case of simply giving us Clues as to When the real moves might happen Sometime in the future now if that Sounds less interesting than this Changes everything or gold and silver to The Moon well hang out for a minute Because I think that this is far more Important than listening to commentary That is either perpetually jumping the Gun Or perpetually wrong now first off I'm Sure a handful of people use that title Or a title similar to this changes Everything I think we're all over that Gold and silver to the Moon Title by now But I just want to make it clear that I'm not throwing shade at anyone in Particular here I did see at least two People use that title so what people Sensationalize those small moves all the Time we know what happens we know who Does it it's not going to change but the Important part of this I think is to
Recognize that price is fluctuate they Go up they go down and a daily move can Rarely be extrapolated I think Understanding that and understanding That people are terrible at predicting The future in the first place is a Better takeaway than a few people on YouTube telling us that everything just Changed so let's start with what Actually happened on Thursday since like I said earlier it's easier to predict The recent past than it is to predict The future now October is reported CPI Numbers they came in at 7.7 percent and Let's be clear that is a very high Number we still have to look back to the 80s to see comparable inflation figures But it was lower than expected and lower Than expected was a good enough excuse For Traders to assume that the FED is Going to announce a softer raid hike Coming in December that would be like 50 Basis points rather than 75 so in other Words less aggressive monetary Tightening now all of that was Speculation but it was enough to lead to Actual dollar weakness on the day the Dollar actually fell and Traders pushed Into riskier bets than U.S treasury Products like the stock market and even Gold and that's what sent the price of Gold and silver up now the key there is That those moves were driven by Speculation Traders can change their
Minds tomorrow so we're getting a look At what could happen if the U.S federal Reserve backs off an aggressive monetary Policy but we're also getting another Look at how guesses and how speculation Knee-jerk reactions work but that part Rarely gets mentioned in these Everything just changed predictions now Another thing that we see in predictions Is confirmation bias not only do people Jump the gun and extrapolate intraday Movement people predict what they want To see like a Red Wave or the collapse Of cryptocurrency now I don't follow Political commentary on YouTube and I Really only follow a few people with any Actual expertise on what's happening With crypto but both of those Predictions popped up into my feed Yesterday and I think it's safe to say That both are premature but in the case Of Bitcoin I would say it typically does The opposite of what the general Consensus says it's going to do I like To keep that in mind because whenever Anybody says Something's Gonna to happen At least with Bitcoin the opposite Typically does now those are similar Cases of people taking an initial trend From the recent past and then Extrapolating it out like that's what's Going to continue to happen it's jumping The gun it's making bad predictions but They have the extra spin of being the
Outcome that people wanted if you look At someone like Peter Schiff well he Wants Bitcoin to crash he wants it to go Away if he sees certain events Regardless of how small what do we think He's going to say and I think we see People around here who know a lot less Than Peter Schiff We'll do the same thing so where I'm Going here is I don't think anything has Changed fundamentally for gold and Silver yet but I think it's getting far Easier to follow what it's doing it Seems a lot less chaotic there are Triggers there are Corrections and we Typically see retracement before we see Further Movement we can see that a lot More clearly now so 1765 dollars probably is not the new Floor for gold 21.65 probably isn't the New floor for silver but what I was Alluding to earlier is that we do get Clues as to what will happen if fed Actually does loosen up on its monetary Policy we will likely see the dollar Fall in the dxy and we'll likely see Gold price spike we're seeing it Happening right now on speculation alone Even if that was just a short-term blip Now looking at a little bit further I do Think it makes sense that we'll see gold Move higher the FED just can't stay Hawkish forever and we have Banks like UBS stating that they're expecting
Double-digit moves in gold price in 2023 We also have several banks that are Predicting gold trading above its All-time high of 2074 next year now I've Mentioned that people are terrible at Predictions but the banks are using Actual data rather than intraday Trends And a practical look at year-over-year Inflation numbers it simply can't Continue increasing forever so I think The gold price is moving up longer term I think that's an easy argument to make We're still waiting on an actual trigger Event though not just speculating on one Before we see an actual big move I mean Just look at what happened CPI numbers They barely changed and gold price Really only went up about two percent Silver went up about the same Bitcoin I Don't even know I am on this topic but I Think it went down about 10 percent on Some pretty serious fud so I think Counting Bitcoin out a little bit of a Mistake but I'm not a huge proponent of It either way so not much has changed in The past few days so I would hold off Booking that ticket to the moon now Knowing what caused yesterday's bump and Knowing what a good premium is we can Find one ounce Maples right now at five Percent kangaroos four and a half one Ounce series coins like lunars you can Find them for six percent quarter ounce Well we can find philharmonics for
Eleven and a half percent we combine Britannia's for 12. so not all premiums Are out of control so other things that Are important right now knowing what's Easy to sell or trade if you need to It's really just sticking to the popular Stuff in your area knowing why you're Buying in the first place and I'm Willing to bet that most of us here are Not in it for short-term investment Gains but I think if we had to pick just One thing one thing that's important to Know is not to jump the gun I think That's probably what gets me when I see These videos about everything change Since I mentioned these lunars I did Pick up the one ounce and the quarter Ounce here the rabbit from the Perth Mint I think they're great coins it's a Fun series I got the one ounce for a six Percent premium on pre-sale and the Quarter ounce for about 11 so pretty Decent premiums the one ounce total was One thousand seven hundred and eighty Dollars so depending on how you look at Things there are still deals to be found I got a one ounce age American Gold Eagle for a little bit less than that at The end of September so again if you're Patient you can find the deals now if I Was just jumping anytime Traders think That the FED might go soft I don't think That I would be finding them So let's call it good there let us know
What you think about Thursday's big Moves do you think medals are on the way To the Moon crypto's dead or do you Think that maybe just maybe we have some Fluctuations coming up yet let us know And while you're in the comments be sure To hit the like button if you found any Of this interesting be sure you're Subscribed with notifications turned on If you'd like to see more on the topic And if you're still here thanks again For watching I always appreciate your Time Take care Foreign
