So by now we all know what's going on in China there have been Mass protests on The streets calling for the end of the Chinese government and more importantly For the lockdowns to end and we have to Discuss this very topic today regarding Why they have been protests going on and What is China going to do about it and If this will force the Communist Party To reopen the country now if you didn't Know by now the protest was sparked by a Daily fire in room Chi the capital city Of xinjiang that claimed the lives of at Least 10 people and it was because of The severe lockdown measures China Imposed on the city right and because of This incident there's been multiple Protests erupting across China a green Major cities like Shanghai and Beijing And the protesters they are demanding For the lockdowns to end and for the Resignation of President XI but will the Chinese government fall under such Pressure will China fully reopen to the Whole world now obviously the incident In xinjiang is a tragedy but we have to Understand the root causes that led to The lockdowns and if it's even feasible For China to be immediately and LA of Downs because it's not that simple even If the country reopens the world economy Could still be doomed or recession there Might be no escaping the Fate that Awaits Us in 2023 and when we look into
Why China is having these prolonged Lockdowns we need to start right at the Beginning of the outbreak and I'll Quickly summarize it now at the start China was actually winning the fight While the West was suffering early Infections in mainland China were well Below a thousand cases a day remember China's population is over 1.4 billion People compared to America's 330 million So that's a very big wide Gap but Because of this early success China made A mistake they didn't finish vaccinating The population especially their elderly We can see vaccination rates for the Elderly in the mainland is well below The rest of Asia such as Hong Kong and Japan plus we need to realize that China's hospitals are unprepared with Only around four Critical Care bids per 100 000 people their population is just Too big so the law level of immunity Plus inadequate Health Care is making it Tough for China to reopen to the world And that's why there are still Mass Lockdowns around because the government Just couldn't afford to just declare Victory and stop all the restrictions Right there will likely be a search and Huge mortality rates which will just Destroy the country's economy but here's The big question have the protests work Will the Chinese government give in stop The lockdowns tomorrow and just roll the
Dice now personally I don't think so Neither do I think the Communist party Is going to get ousted anytime soon and This is the thing about such headlines Stuff like China is going to crash in 30 Days or America's downfall is next week All those are YouTube clickbait titles To draw in the clicks you know it is What it is however we need to confront Reality no country especially the big Powers are that fragile and if any Changes to happen it will take a lot of Time it'll take years and decades but we Are beginning to see the Chinese Government start to listen to their Citizens maybe it's a bit forced but They are starting to listen there have Been some risk actions lifted in Guangzhou at Chongqing as a result of The protest we have one of China's Senior officials Sun chulan mentioning How China's pandemic containment faces a New stage and Mission and 24 districts In Shanghai destinated as high risk were Also released from the lockdown measures So it seems that China might be trying To tiptoe towards a full reopening of The country but just because China Reopens doesn't mean the world economy Is going to be safe even if the Lockdowns end today you'll take some Time for the industries to ramp up Before things get back into high gear And right now there's a lot of confusion
In the markets if one can be leaving the Protests will Doom China and we're going To see the economic meltdown while the Other beliefs of reopening will happen In early 2023 and now is the time to go Long and invest in China however we need To take a step back and really analyze What the reopening of China could mean Because the result might just shock you And because of the lockdowns China has Up to a film of his GDP locked the away And this is damaging the economy we have The PMI shooting over the past few Months and this isn't a good sign for Their Manufacturing in fact it is Shrinking and this means output from China is suppressed plus millions of Businesses they are no longer operating So if China does reopen the general idea Is that the Chinese people they'll rush Out to spend and that spending will Boost GDP growth in many countries You'll buy lots of stuff from Europe and Begin importing tons of American-made Goods I remember that China is one of America's biggest trading partners so The hope is that whatever the U.S sells China will buy to help us companies stay Afloat and contribute to U.S GDP and This will help them avoid a recession But let's realize that China's reopening Isn't going to be instant and not Everyone will have the purchasing power Or the mindset to just spend like
Drunken Sailors youth unemployment in China is close to 18 and it's very high And this means overseas spending Probably isn't going to be a priority The rich in China yeah they were spent For sure but the messes aren't going to Go crazy with their wallets people will Spend more locally because prices will Be cheaper and remember that all Currencies are crashing against the Dollar they have crashed quite badly and The same goes for the Chinese Yuan which Is down by almost 10 percent so it will Cost more to import Goods especially From the United States and we have to Talk about the hope of disinflation for The world economy if China reopens now The narrative once again goes something Along the lines of China starting to Manufacture more stuff and flooding the World with a generous supply of goods And we can see China's exports Falling By 0.3 percent in October when Production Rams up we should see if XBox Just go through the roof right however Is there the type of stuff that will Save the world economy China's main Exports are manufactured goods like TVs Furniture Plastics and machinery and in The us alone the biggest contributor to Inflation is Energy prices and food Prices and China is the world's biggest Consumer of energy so even if prices of Consumer goods goes down in America
Because of Chinese exports or cheap Manufacturing we are going to see the Demand for energy go through the roof Plus if China's exports increase the Main beneficiaries will be the Chinese Companies because prices will generally Be cheaper versus the rest of the world Remember that China has access to cheap Energy from Russia they are buying oil And gas at massive discounts so they can Outprice the world we have to understand That reopening China will be more Awesome for the Chinese economy because They can be more competitive versus the World their reopening can actually Jack Energy prices without suffering higher Energy inflation themselves but here's The kicker China has not been idle During this period of lockdowns they Have been going out into the world Cutting energy deals because they know They have to reopen sooner or later and I think this is the missing piece of the Puzzle that many people aren't seeing There have been a lot of chess moves China has been doing behind a lot of Downs and actually using it to the Advantage they have been securing their Energy future by signing oil and gas Partnerships in the Middle East like Their recent 27 year LNG deal with Qatar They're also the risking Dr results by Dumping treasuries and selling dollars To defend the Chinese Yuan today they
Have sold over 130 billion dollars worth Of U.S bonds and a large part is Probably moving into gold now China is In a position where they can't raise Rates like the rest of the world they Are still trying to manage their Property bubble and to prevent a Horrific crash property prices for new Build homes in China they have been Falling for two quarters straight and Higher rates will just crush the market We have Chinese leaders looking to shift Those GDP growth and slowly Transitioning the people away from the Lockdowns even though cases are surging And according to many analysts economic Conditions are worsening and policy Makers pain point is being reached now If Chinese lawmakers change their Language and they said economic targets Of 2023 during a poly Bureau meeting We're going to see a reopening of the Country is going to be much faster than We expect now a lot of economies they Are predicting China's growth to plunge Overall this year but rebound and hit 4.9 percent in 2023 and there's a very Good chance it could happen now the Protests over the last week might have Been the wake-up call the government Needed to accelerate the process China's Central banks also focus on growth and That means they are going to keep easing Yes this is inflationary but they want
To Spur spending and get businesses Moving right it's like trying to Kick-start an engine after he has been Dormant for too long so if you're an Investor and you're thinking of getting The Chinese markets this might be a Turning point we have Chinese stocks Like Alibaba on a tear Rising nearly 20 In just a week after the protest breaks Out and the rest of the world the U.S And Europe they're all hiking rates While China is easing so at least the Initial GDP Boost from a lower bar could See China grow faster than the rest of The world when they open up but the ride Will be very Rocky especially if the Chinese government opens up to fast and I think we have to watch the fascination Rates in a country now the biggest Hurdle right now is that elderly with Only 65 percent of them being vaccinated Now China's organizing drives for the Population to get their shot but it's Going to take time the target is for 90 Of people over 80 years old to have at Least one dose by January 2023 and That's very ambitious and when that Target is Rich I think we'll see a Faster reopening of China but the main Beneficiary of this will be China itself And we have to understand this they Already have cheap energy flowing from Russia and it demands spikes they can Just knock on Putin's door and ask for
More and because of the sanctions and The price came on Russian oil coming China's the main outlet for Putin's oil And right now the dollar has fallen Quite a bit against Global currencies But if China reopens it's going to send A dollar tumbling down even further We're going to see money flow into the Yuan in order to invest in the Chinese Economy and if China pushes for more Bilateral trade especially she nowadays Have more goods and services this will Strengthen their currency further and we Have to understand what China has Already been doing over the last few Months they have been actively selling Treasuries conducting lots of trade with Russia using the Yuan pushing aside the Dollar in the Euro so if China does Reopen and they start trading the Yuan That is another form of the Dollarization but this move is Contingent on China ending their Lockdowns and managing the transition Well which is the tall order is still a Very big challenge now protests in China Aren't a good look for them any protests Anyway isn't a wonderful thing and it's The tragedy what happened to the people In the um Chi fire I personally think That lockdown measures the way they Handle it the way they implemented it Has gone too far and even though China Has a lot to gain when it reopens is
Still a dangerous tightrope walk where Anything can go wrong if the government Opens too slowly or if it does so too Fast and they know that Eternal Lockdowns do not work anymore and the Chinese people are starting to show Great anger go at the people in power They have to accelerate their timetable Now the protests are reflection of a China ready to reopen people are tired Of getting cooped up at home and the Chinese government needs to adapt and do It quickly but I have to emphasize that China isn't going to collapse in 31 days No country is collapsing tomorrow but I See this as a wake-up call for China to Readjust a strategy to reopen the Country and their economy and I want us To remember that energy prices as high As the county are they are being Suppressed by China's lockdowns so don't Be surprised if energy demands surges And the inflation goes crazy once again When China reopens so let me know what You think will China be forced to reopen Early will the protests work and end the Lockdowns let me know in the comments Below stay safe be sure to smash the Like button and subscribe as we navigate Through these crazy times
